Every year at SIG, we celebrate the Super Bowl with the company’s Super Bowl. This year, any player was randomly assigned to either Cincinnati or Los Angeles as the winner based on the final tally of each team’s final score. To win, your assigned team must win, and the final number of each team must match your assigned number. Each lucky winner has the option to choose either two Ethereums or $6,232.47 (the amount equal to two Ethereums on February 11, 2022). Using SIG Sport’s NFL simulation model based on 1 million simulations, I’ve combined the probability of winning each square on the grid for Cincinnati (based on the assumption that the Bengals win) and Los Angeles (based on the assumption that the Rams won. ). Below, I go over some interesting information about the probability of each square. Why are squares with one symbol for each group wrong?
Since the Super Bowl cannot end in a tie, for a square where each team has one score, say for example LAR 1 – CIN 1, to beat, the difference at the end of the game must be at least ten. However, the two teams are close to the power of winning double figures for each team (Los Angeles is a 4.5 favorite); in our simulations, Los Angeles wins by double digits 34.4% of the time and Cincinnati wins by double digits 12.0% of the time, so these squares are especially bad for Cincinnati. This also explains why the squares on the 0-0 to 9-9 diagonal all have more than twice as many hits on the Los Angeles grid than on the Cincinnati Grid when Los Angeles is less than 2/3 away from winning. Why do some areas in Cincinnati have higher net worth than their counterparts in Los Angeles?
For example, look at the LAR 0 – CIN 1 space on both grids. Although Cincinnati has 35-65 dogs, this square has more than 2.5 times more size in the Cincinnati grid than in the Los Angeles grid! If Cincinnati wins, LAR 0 – CIN 1 square can be hit only if Cincinnati wins by 1, 11, 21, etc., and winning by 1 is more likely. Similarly, if Los Angeles wins, the LAR 0 – CIN 1 square can only be played if Los Angeles wins by 9, 19, 29, etc. and win by 9 most likely. According to our simulations, Cincinnati wins by one point 2.64% of the time and Los Angeles wins by nine 1.58% of the time. Although the two results are about the same distance from the opening slot (Los Angeles -4.5), the effects that make football make a 9-point victory. Since the most runs a team can score on a drive is 8, the team makes a choice during the game to get the score below 9 (for example, they can go for two after a hand, going for fourth down instead of punting, etc.)
